Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd419…3f03 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,469 (-13%) realized −$1,472 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$28
14 days−$1,208
30 days−$1,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$568
sports 40% −$1,116
crypto 19% −$918
world 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.2% -16.0% 33% 33% -17.5%
≤30d 23 -8.8% -17.5% 30% 30% -28.6%
≤90d 25 -11.6% -20.1% 32% 32% -24.1%
all 37 -6.3% -15.3% 41% 38% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 38% -21.5%
10% -23.4% 32% -29.0%
15% -30.8% 30% -35.8%
20% -37.6% 27% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$199 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$1,472
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage236d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $301 $304 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $77 −$76 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $122 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$40 +79%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$53 +178%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $108 +$73 +67%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $46 +$62 +137%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $477 −$473 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $378 −$124 -33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $335 −$290 -87%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $379 −$377 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $305 −$301 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $559 +$637 +114%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $23 +$135 +596%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $604 −$600 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,577 +$709 +45%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $15 −$15 -97%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 23 $1,054 +$127 +12%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 12 $100 −$61 -61%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 12 $193 −$56 -29%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 21 $546 +$49 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 21 $492 +$103 +21%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Nov 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Nov 15 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 12 $1,068 −$1,068 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $58 +$56 +96%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5 Nov 05 $55 +$45 +81%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Nov 05 $57 +$43 +75%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $1,499 +$498 +33%
Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) Nov 02 $55 +$46 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $305 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $77 45h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 60¢ $122 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $122 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 6d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 6d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $29 6d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $182 9d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $181 9d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $108 9d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 42¢ $108 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $477 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $254 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $378 9d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $46 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 8¢ $45 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $335 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $95 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $82 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $202 10d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $20 10d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 10d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $305 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $300 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.60 · official $303.60 (match) · 107 history records