Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd418…6d2e weather 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$45 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%100W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% +$15
other 17% +$9
sports 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 44 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 101 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.4%
all 101 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses100 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage59d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? No 100¢ 95¢ $150 $143 −$7 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $954 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $632 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $193 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $1,031 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $1,029 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $734 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $654 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $452 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 30? May 31 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 30? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $391 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 29? May 30 $244 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $739 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29? May 30 $37 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $1,019 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 27? May 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $122 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $243 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $204 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 25? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $30 −$15 -49%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 22? May 22 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 22? May 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $367 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $96 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $300 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $79 17d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $34 17d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $920 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $193 18d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $632 18d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $106 18d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,031 19d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,029 19d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $179 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $734 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $654 21d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 21d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $295 21d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $320 22d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.98 · official $242.97 (match) · 250 history records