Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D4 0xd417…9438 weather 375 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$481 (+2%) realized +$475 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%337W / 35L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$60
14 days+$77
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$463
other 1% +$12
sports 0% −$4
culture 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.6% -6.2% 96% 26% -6.9%
≤30d 34 +3.6% -6.3% 97% 18% -6.7%
≤90d 214 +1.4% -8.2% 92% 14% -7.3%
all 372 +5.0% -5.0% 91% 13% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 13% -7.6%
10% -14.1% 5% -16.5%
15% -22.4% 3% -24.5%
20% -30.0% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$475
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses337 / 35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)372 / 375
History coverage143d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 20? No 94¢ 100¢ $94 $100 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $290 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 20 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$25 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $77 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $79 +$21 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $61 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 28 May 28 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap May 28 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 28? May 28 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 29? May 28 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 29? May 28 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 29 May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 29? Apr 29 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 28? Apr 29 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Apr Apr 29 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Apr 27 $96 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 25? Apr 27 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 25? Apr 26 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 25? Apr 26 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Apr Apr 25 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on April 24? Apr 25 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 24? Apr 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 24 Apr 25 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 23 Apr 24 $94 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ap Apr 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 23? Apr 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on April 15? Apr 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 15 Apr 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $54 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $48 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $80 22h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $94 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $47 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $18 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $96 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $97 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $68 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $29 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $95 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $98 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $84 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.62 · official $207.53 (match) · 1269 history records