Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

D4 0xd416…4961 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$399 (-11%) realized −$399 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,260per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$19est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-31.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-24.6%	-31.8%	50%	50%	-19.3%
≤30d	2	-24.6%	-31.8%	50%	50%	-19.3%
≤90d	2	-24.6%	-31.8%	50%	50%	-19.3%
all	2	-24.6%	-31.8%	50%	50%	-19.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.8%	50%	-19.3%
10%	-38.3%	0%	-27.1%
15%	-44.3%	0%	-34.1%
20%	-49.7%	0%	-40.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$461 vs −$860 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$100

Realized−$399

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$19

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1,260

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	No	97¢	97¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$1,260	−$860	-68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$2,421	+$461	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	24¢	$353	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	24¢	$47	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	73¢	$252	1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY No	97¢	$100	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$1,007	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	81¢	$2,882	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2,421	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.26 · official $100.26 (match) · 7 history records