Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd416…cae6 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$13
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$9
other 21% −$17
sports 14% $0
politics 8% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 18 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 11% -10.6%
≤90d 18 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 11% -10.6%
all 59 -3.6% -12.8% 22% 3% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -11.3%
10% -21.1% 2% -19.8%
15% -28.7% 2% -27.6%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage272d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $89 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$2 -17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $21 −$6 -28%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $109 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $98 −$5 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $66 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $57 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $4 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $48 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $41 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $41 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $9 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $48 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $48 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $26 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $17 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $17 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $45 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $46 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.16 · official $48.16 (match) · 247 history records