Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd414…7ba6 world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1
sports 12% −$5
other 12% −$1
politics 10% −$1
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.8%
all 23 -5.8% -14.8% 30% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -11.2%
10% -22.9% 0% -19.7%
15% -30.4% 0% -27.4%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage472d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $38 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Dec 09 $9 $0 +5%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 12 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $11 $0 -1%
Oklahoma State vs. UCF Mar 04 $14 −$4 -31%
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech Mar 04 $5 $0 -3%
USC Upstate vs. Gardner Webb Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Missouri vs. Oklahoma Mar 04 $16 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $30 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $37 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $1 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $12 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $26 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $18 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $20 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $38 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 26d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 357d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 357d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $6 357d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? BUY No 94¢ $9 430d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records