Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd411…2faa crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$91 (-12%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 176d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$37
other 13% −$57
sports 6% −$43
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -19.3% -27.0% 53% 47% -15.0%
≤30d 30 -19.3% -27.0% 53% 47% -15.0%
≤90d 30 -19.3% -27.0% 53% 47% -15.0%
all 33 -22.4% -29.8% 48% 42% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 42% -25.8%
10% -36.5% 33% -32.9%
15% -42.6% 27% -39.4%
20% -48.3% 18% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage176d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $79 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec Dec 27 $18 $0 -1%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Dec 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $100 −$57 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records