Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd40d…b62d other 33 markets active 12d ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$1
other 17% $0
politics 9% +$1
tech 4% −$5
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -2.2% -11.5% 53% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.2%
10% -20.0% 3% -17.9%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage452d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $99 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $7 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -88%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $2 $0 -1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +2%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 21 $14 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $0 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $10 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $4 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $4 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $24 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $1 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $49 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $49 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $48 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $48 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 19d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 19d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $26 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $26 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records