Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd40c…9b18 sports 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%12W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$5
other 21% −$4
politics 18% −$2
crypto 9% −$2
economics 9% $0
world 8% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 19% 0% -9.7%
all 197 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses12 / 185
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage172d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $25 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 18 $31 −$2 -5%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $223 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 07 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $42 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 07 $33 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $285 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $182 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 24 $2 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 24 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $165 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $139 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 12d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $25 24d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $25 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 90¢ $30 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 41d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $31 71d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $31 71d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $37 71d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $37 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 98¢ $37 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 98¢ $37 72d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $38 72d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $38 72d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $31 72d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $31 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $30 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $30 73d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $38 73d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $38 73d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $38 73d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $38 74d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $30 74d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $30 74d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.31 · official $34.31 (match) · 678 history records