Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd408…b293 crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,468 (-11%) realized −$1,458 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate80%144W / 35L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days+$17
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$29
crypto 16% −$1,509
politics 1% −$3
sports 0% +$12
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +115.4% +94.9% 21% 21% -9.6%
≤90d 78 +18.5% +7.2% 68% 10% -9.6%
all 179 +7.8% -2.5% 80% 8% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 8% -20.0%
10% -11.8% 7% -27.7%
15% -20.3% 5% -34.7%
20% -28.1% 4% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$44 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$1,458
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses144 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)179 / 206
History coverage134d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 42¢ $38 $32 −$6 (-17%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,001 −$5 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,202 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,201 −$5 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,211 −$6 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,216 −$4 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 14 $1 +$42 +4045%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 01 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 +$1 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 13 $1 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 09 $2 +$5 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,997 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,001 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,197 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,202 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,196 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,201 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,204 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,211 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,212 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,216 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 BUY 14¢ $1 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 18d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $1 21d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $1 21d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $2 24d
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 24d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 28d
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 36d
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 36d
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.59 · official $110.59 (match) · 456 history records