Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd408…e85c sports 634 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 141d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$183,265 (-3%) realized −$183,265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%446W / 188L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,805per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$30,386est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,191
7 days+$11,230
14 days+$16,156
30 days+$8,577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$213,008
other 0% +$2,453
crypto 0% −$6,591
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.9% -11.3% 67% 67% +6.1%
≤30d 126 +3.4% -6.5% 64% 63% -8.1%
≤90d 504 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 56% -14.8%
all 634 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 54% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 54% -13.0%
10% -18.3% 36% -21.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.2% 24% -29.0%
20% -33.5% 14% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$10,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,808 vs −$5,443 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$183,265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses446 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$30,386
Open positions0
Markets (closed)634 / 634
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$8,805
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 634 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,003 +$184 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$213 +21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $8,974 +$3,738 +42%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,907 +$2,056 +30%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5,175 +$2,144 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,376 +$1,089 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,616 −$1,616 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,679 −$3,679 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10,103 +$7,637 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,094 −$1,094 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4,031 +$1,298 +32%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $4,168 +$2,029 +49%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,019 +$1,069 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,396 +$610 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $596 −$596 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,013 −$2,013 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $4,934 −$4,261 -86%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5,025 +$2,420 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5,369 −$2,399 -45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1,823 +$851 +47%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2,026 −$2,026 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $2,002 −$2,002 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $10,634 +$4,313 +41%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $3,072 −$3,072 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $681 +$127 +19%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,485 +$678 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,499 +$2,480 +99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $6,932 +$3,302 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3,361 +$2,168 +64%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,464 −$2,424 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $7,962 +$448 +6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2,865 +$1,151 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $25,553 −$1,406 -6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $7,547 +$3,216 +43%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $6,316 +$4,104 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $14,838 −$7,614 -51%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $4,692 +$3,031 +65%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $10,410 −$10,410 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 02 $3,055 −$3,055 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 02 $3,055 −$3,055 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $4,913 −$4,913 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $22,131 −$6,962 -32%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $3,034 +$1,800 +59%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $2,610 +$1,830 +70%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $5,092 +$2,538 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,007 +$651 +65%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 31 $3,019 −$3,019 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) May 31 $3,040 −$3,040 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $4,981 −$4,981 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 30 $5,018 +$3,029 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,187 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,218 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,003 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $8,974 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $8,963 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $6,907 28h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $7,320 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $5,175 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 68¢ $2,376 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $3,675 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $14,065 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $437 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $224 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $728 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $320 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $978 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $728 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $9 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $320 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $224 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $728 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $2 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $1 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $14 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $175 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $19 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $7 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records