Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd406…7e60 crypto 443 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (206 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,376 (+267%) realized +$12,337 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%289W / 160L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day206.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (206 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 449 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 53% -3.9%
≤30d 449 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 53% -3.9%
≤90d 449 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 53% -3.9%
all 449 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 53% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 53% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 40% -13.1%
15% -20.1% 22% -21.5%
20% -27.9% 10% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$12,337
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses289 / 160
Open positions1
Markets (closed)449 / 443
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day206.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $90 $129 +$39 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$28 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$39 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $166 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$28 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $150 −$45 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $84 +$22 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$34 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $80 +$30 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $154 −$77 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $172 −$30 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$32 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$49 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $173 −$61 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$60 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$29 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$19 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$25 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$50 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $183 −$70 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$34 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$33 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $121 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$13 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $29 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.74 · official $126.54 · 3500 history records