Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd406…2fc9 crypto 1325 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,400 (-3%) realized −$1,400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate73%970W / 352L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day79.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$547
14 days−$267
30 days−$955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,274
other 6% +$493
sports 6% −$73
weather 2% −$100
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 344 -11.7% -20.1% 78% 6% -16.1%
≤30d 1322 -1.3% -10.7% 73% 25% -11.7%
≤90d 1322 -1.3% -10.7% 73% 25% -11.7%
all 1322 -1.3% -10.7% 73% 25% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 25% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 21% -20.1%
15% -27.0% 18% -27.8%
20% -34.2% 15% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses970 / 352
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1322 / 1325
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day79.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1322 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $97 +$36 +37%
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sam Stevens finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Republican Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections i Jun 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 21 $26 −$3 -13%
Will the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat? Jun 21 $5 $0 -5%
Will Josh Turek win the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary by between 20% Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will John Mills be the Republican nominee for AL-01? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Akshay Bhatia finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 $0 -2%
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Sung-Jae Im finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 $0 -2%
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 21 $13 +$3 +23%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Laurie Canter finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 21 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Ryo Hisatsune finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bud Cauley finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Greyserman finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kurt Kitayama finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential electio Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $48 −$36 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $27 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $69 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $41 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 19? Jun 20 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 2h
Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11h
Will Republican Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections i SELL No 89¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 75¢ $23 11h
Will the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 11h
Will Josh Turek win the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary by between 20% SELL Yes 96¢ $5 11h
Will John Mills be the Republican nominee for AL-01? SELL No 87¢ $4 11h
Will Akshay Bhatia finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 98¢ $5 11h
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 98¢ $5 11h
Will Sung-Jae Im finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 98¢ $5 11h
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $3 11h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? SELL No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $16 11h
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe SELL Yes 99¢ $34 11h
Will Max Greyserman finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
Will Kurt Kitayama finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 99¢ $5 19h
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 21¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 21¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 21¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 87¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 85¢ $26 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records