Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd404…b4eb sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$86 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%25W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$92
14 days+$92
30 days−$1,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$484
other 24% +$402
crypto 10% +$299
politics 3% −$127
world 3% −$277
finance 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 31% 31% -0.6%
≤30d 41 -65.1% -68.5% 12% 10% -66.1%
≤90d 94 -23.7% -31.0% 27% 26% -10.8%
all 94 -23.7% -31.0% 27% 26% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 26% -10.8%
10% -37.6% 26% -19.3%
15% -43.6% 24% -27.1%
20% -49.1% 22% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$64 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses25 / 69
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage72d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 17¢ $258 $169 −$89 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $156 +$108 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $322 −$166 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$135 +509%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $164 +$110 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 +$77 +146%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 −$16 -32%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$43 -85%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $53 −$52 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
World Championships: Denmark vs. Slovakia May 21 $99 −$97 -98%
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway May 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait o May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners May 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
World Championships: Finland vs. USA May 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 21 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 21 $261 −$261 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 21 $185 −$185 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 21 $224 −$224 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 09 $23 +$58 +246%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $40 −$16 -41%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $52 −$12 -24%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $25 +$24 +97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $62 +$42 +67%
SHL: Skellefteå vs. Rögle May 02 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 24 $228 −$75 -33%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 24 $71 +$257 +364%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $264 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $163 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $156 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 26¢ $156 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $322 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $275 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $164 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 15¢ $34 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $50 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $53 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 5¢ $7 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 5d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 8¢ $53 18d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $55 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 18d
World Championships: Denmark vs. Slovakia BUY Denmark 38¢ $99 27d
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway SELL Norway 13¢ $98 27d
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway BUY Norway 5¢ $100 27d
World Championships: Finland vs. USA BUY USA 35¢ $102 30d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 38d
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $81 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.56 · official $143.77 · 234 history records