Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd403…5ccb crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate68%39W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$20
other 18% −$38
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 56% -15.5%
≤30d 57 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 56% -15.5%
≤90d 57 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 56% -15.5%
all 57 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 56% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 56% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 44% -23.6%
15% -25.1% 26% -31.0%
20% -32.4% 23% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses39 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$22 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $16 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records