Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd403…048a crypto 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12,707 (-13%) realized −$12,710 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate81%351W / 82L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$714
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$12,161
crypto 48% −$998
weather 2% $0
other 1% +$46
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.3% -4.7% 88% 50% -11.8%
≤30d 152 -0.5% -10.0% 86% 24% -13.1%
≤90d 411 -0.7% -10.2% 83% 29% -10.8%
all 433 -2.3% -11.6% 81% 29% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 29% -21.1%
10% -20.1% 13% -28.6%
15% -27.8% 6% -35.5%
20% -34.9% 2% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$261 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$12,710
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses351 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions1
Markets (closed)433 / 434
History coverage186d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 0¢ 55¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $291 −$291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $255 +$30 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $235 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $216 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $197 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $139 +$66 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $124 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $118 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $109 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $91 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $63 +$33 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $55 +$6 +11%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $157 −$95 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 02 $307 −$280 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 02 $203 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 02 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 02 $101 +$14 +14%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 02 $201 −$97 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 02 $92 +$29 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 02 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $201 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $404 −$49 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 01 $103 +$78 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 01 $103 +$67 +65%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $304 −$208 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $302 −$102 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $101 +$18 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $46 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $35 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $291 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $300 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $255 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $235 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $216 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $197 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $139 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $55 1h
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 55¢ $96 25d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 45¢ $35 25d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 75¢ $60 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $202 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $27 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $105 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.34 · official $3.03 (match) · 1130 history records