Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd402…9a70 crypto 146 markets active 6d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-12%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%71W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -14.6% -22.7% 49% 47% -19.2%
≤30d 137 -14.6% -22.7% 49% 47% -19.2%
≤90d 146 -15.4% -23.5% 49% 47% -23.5%
all 146 -15.4% -23.5% 49% 47% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 47% -23.5%
10% -30.8% 44% -30.9%
15% -37.5% 34% -37.5%
20% -43.6% 29% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses71 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage36d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records