Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3fe…b0e4 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day145.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -19.6% -27.2% 37% 23% -20.4%
≤30d 30 -19.6% -27.2% 37% 23% -20.4%
≤90d 30 -19.6% -27.2% 37% 23% -20.4%
all 30 -19.6% -27.2% 37% 23% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 23% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 10% -28.0%
15% -40.6% 7% -35.0%
20% -46.4% 7% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day145.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records