Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

D3 0xd3fd…90cb other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$24 (+7%) realized +$25 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-12.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-3.6%	-12.7%	67%	67%	+19.3%
≤30d	3	-3.6%	-12.7%	67%	67%	+19.3%
≤90d	3	-3.6%	-12.7%	67%	67%	+19.3%
all	3	-3.6%	-12.7%	67%	67%	+19.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.7%	67%	+19.3%
10%	-21.1%	67%	+7.9%
15%	-28.7%	33%	-2.5%
20%	-35.7%	33%	-12.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$10 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.14 per $1 lost it wins $6.14

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$199

Realized+$25

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$101	+$33	+32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	13h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.67 · official $198.67 (match) · 7 history records