Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D3 0xd3fc…3841 sports 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+5%) realized +$90 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%32W / 26L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$140
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$116
other 35% +$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +1.3% -8.4% 57% 57% -3.1%
≤30d 58 +0.6% -8.9% 55% 55% -4.1%
≤90d 58 +0.6% -8.9% 55% 55% -4.1%
all 58 +0.6% -8.9% 55% 55% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 55% -4.1%
10% -17.7% 53% -13.2%
15% -25.6% 48% -21.6%
20% -32.9% 34% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses32 / 26
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage8d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 54¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 69¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$46 -91%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $131 +$81 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $71 +$78 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$45 -89%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $30 −$1 -2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$14 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$15 +74%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$11 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $101 +$66 +66%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$21 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$17 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$33 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $64 +$47 +74%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$59 +198%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$49 -96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$21 +41%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $61 +$39 +64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 +$43 +170%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$21 +53%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 −$11 -89%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +272%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +113%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$9 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $40 24m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $76 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $3 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $49 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 8¢ $6 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $29 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 61¢ $29 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 54¢ $41 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $51 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $71 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $25 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $70 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.21 · official $183.22 (match) · 112 history records