Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D3 0xd3fb…57e5 other 365 markets active 3h ago coverage 212d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 211d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,610 (+8%) realized +$13,035 · open +$575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate77%248W / 76L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$11,590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$59
14 days−$214
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$11,025
tech 23% +$2,297
politics 12% +$764
culture 9% +$773
sports 6% +$240
world 6% +$559
crypto 1% +$423
finance 0% +$147
economics 0% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.1% -5.8% 69% 38% -7.7%
≤30d 41 -14.8% -22.9% 49% 29% -8.7%
≤90d 57 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 37% -5.2%
all 324 +20.0% +8.5% 77% 30% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 30% +0.6%
10% -1.9% 18% -9.1%
15% -11.3% 15% -17.8%
20% -20.0% 13% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$58 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.78 per $1 lost it wins $4.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$11,590
Realized+$13,035
Unrealized+$575
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses248 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions47
Markets (closed)324 / 365
History coverage212d ⚠
Avg bet$469
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $1,472 $1,533 +$61 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 95¢ 100¢ $1,070 $1,124 +$54 (+5%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $920 $945 +$25 (+3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $831 $857 +$26 (+3%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $676 $736 +$60 (+9%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic 92¢ 97¢ $673 $706 +$33 (+5%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $628 $631 +$2 (+0%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $616 $626 +$10 (+2%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $491 $498 +$7 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $460 $468 +$8 (+2%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $433 $466 +$33 (+8%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $340 $416 +$76 (+22%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 56¢ 96¢ $196 $336 +$140 (+72%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $294 $335 +$41 (+14%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $284 $287 +$4 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $192 $196 +$4 (+2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 91¢ 88¢ $157 $153 −$4 (-3%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 53¢ 26¢ $247 $123 −$124 (-50%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 88¢ 89¢ $103 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic 74¢ 78¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+6%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No 85¢ 82¢ $85 $82 −$3 (-4%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No 60¢ 82¢ $55 $76 +$21 (+37%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $58 $68 +$10 (+18%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 58¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 46¢ 22¢ $118 $56 −$62 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $211 +$9 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 19 $72 +$22 +31%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $288 +$10 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $24 +$3 +13%
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $195 +$5 +2%
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 17 $397 +$2 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $127 +$33 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $255 −$75 -30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $102 −$2 -2%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 14 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $231 +$171 +74%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $780 +$39 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +108%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $166 −$141 -85%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 11 $88 −$25 -28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2,965 −$703 -24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,468 −$19 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $10,000 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $196 +$4 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $54 +$66 +122%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $136 +$45 +33%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 09 $703 +$359 +51%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $44 +$5 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 03 $484 +$16 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 31 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $37 −$37 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 29 $15 +$5 +30%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $136 −$30 -22%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $630b and $640b on January 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on January 31? May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gros May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $58 −$58 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? May 27 $84 −$84 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $318 −$6 -2%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $18 $0 -1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,274 +$26 +2%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $117 +$5 +4%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting? Apr 29 $4 +$1 +35%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 29 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeti Apr 29 $361 +$12 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $25 +$25 +100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 02 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on Ma Apr 02 $17 +$40 +240%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting? Apr 02 $93 +$7 +8%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Apr 02 $92 +$8 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $180 3h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $90 3h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $90 3h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $90 3h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $110 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL No 94¢ $95 12h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $141 12h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $293 23h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 27h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 28h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 29h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 31h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 33h
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 37h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 39h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $136 40h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 43h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $27 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $100 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $10 2d
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? SELL Anthropic + OpenAI 97¢ $207 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 78¢ $13 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 78¢ $17 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $3 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 82¢ $8 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL No 83¢ $172 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 71¢ $72 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 83¢ $173 2d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,589.99 · official $11,589.55 (match) · 3500 history records