Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3f9…62bf sports 443 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,274 (+16%) realized +$22,348 · open −$1,074
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate91%393W / 38L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$10,173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$167
14 days+$731
30 days+$1,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$15,631
other 13% +$3,028
finance 2% +$1,142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.0% -9.5% 95% 5% -3.1%
≤30d 50 -1.0% -10.5% 88% 18% -2.6%
≤90d 224 +8.6% -1.7% 93% 44% +0.1%
all 431 +7.6% -2.7% 91% 39% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 39% +5.7%
10% -12.0% 15% -4.4%
15% -20.5% 7% -13.6%
20% -28.3% 6% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$213 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$10,173
Realized+$22,348
Unrealized−$1,074
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses393 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions12
Markets (closed)431 / 443
History coverage120d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 69¢ 53¢ $5,619 $4,316 −$1,303 (-23%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,384 $1,423 +$39 (+3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,254 $1,256 +$2 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,122 $1,142 +$19 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 85¢ 90¢ $562 $596 +$34 (+6%)
Spread: Hamarkameratene (-2.5) FK Bodø/Glimt 97¢ 98¢ $531 $532 +$1 (+0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 92¢ 93¢ $372 $378 +$6 (+2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner Austria 52¢ 100¢ $130 $250 +$120 (+92%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $200 $204 +$5 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $52 $59 +$6 (+12%)
Spread: Hamarkameratene (-1.5) FK Bodø/Glimt 93¢ 74¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-20%)
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dani Olmo: 5+ shots Jun 15 $136 +$2 +2%
Mikel Merino: 5+ shots Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Eric García: 4+ shots Jun 15 $96 +$1 +1%
Eric García: 3+ shots Jun 15 $57 +$1 +2%
Alex Baena: 5+ shots Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Martín Zubimendi: 5+ shots Jun 15 $89 +$1 +1%
Marc Pubill: 2+ shots Jun 15 $101 +$2 +2%
Pedro Porro: 5+ shots Jun 15 $108 +$1 +1%
Marc Pubill: 3+ shots Jun 15 $121 +$2 +1%
Pedro Porro: 4+ shots Jun 15 $108 +$2 +2%
Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ goals Jun 15 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Marc Pubill be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $156 +$4 +2%
Will Aymeric Laporte be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $223 +$4 +2%
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $154 +$4 +2%
Will Dani Olmo be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Rodri be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $429 +$251 +58%
Will Álex Baena be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +6%
Will Martín Zubimendi be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Eric García be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $91 +$3 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $120 −$118 -99%
Spread: Puerto Rico (-2.5) Jun 08 $131 +$4 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $135 +$16 +12%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? Jun 08 $144 +$17 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $285 +$215 +75%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $617 +$45 +7%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 08 $1,827 +$1,542 +84%
Spread: Nicaragua (-2.5) Jun 08 $49 +$1 +3%
Spread: Aruba (-2.5) Jun 08 $49 +$1 +3%
Spread: Mongolia (-2.5) Jun 08 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 08 $67 +$21 +31%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 05 $555 −$554 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $1,311 −$1,311 -100%
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5) Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Raja Club Athletic vs. RS Berkane: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $243 +$7 +3%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $431 +$559 +130%
Spread: Caracas FC (-2.5) Jun 01 $38 +$2 +5%
Spread: SC União Torreense (-2.5) Jun 01 $295 +$6 +2%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24? Jun 01 $344 +$26 +8%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $581 +$49 +8%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-21? Jun 01 $613 +$52 +8%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? Jun 01 $649 +$84 +13%
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Kagoshima United FC: Draw at halftime? May 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Kagoshima United FC leading at halftime? May 20 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Osasuna be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 20 $49 −$49 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 0.5 May 18 $16 $0 +3%
Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5) May 18 $277 +$6 +2%
Spread: Seattle Reign FC (-1.5) May 18 $270 +$39 +14%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5 May 18 $464 +$34 +7%
Spread: Al Shabab Saudi Club (-2.5) May 18 $3,693 +$312 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $248 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $262 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Calin Apostol vs. Radu David Turcanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $304 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner BUY Austria 52¢ $132 22h
Marc Pubill: 2+ shots BUY No 99¢ $84 41h
Marc Pubill: 2+ shots BUY No 97¢ $17 41h
Marc Pubill: 3+ shots BUY No 99¢ $121 41h
Will Martín Zubimendi be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $99 41h
Will Rodri be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $172 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $120 41h
Pedro Porro: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $108 42h
Eric García: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $57 42h
Eric García: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $96 42h
Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $64 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,173.09 · official $10,173.09 (match) · 1722 history records