Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3f7…b781 sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-12%) realized −$137 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%39W / 28L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$101
14 days+$101
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$59
crypto 17% +$111
world 7% −$8
other 4% +$12
politics 2% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +35.0% +22.1% 52% 40% +17.4%
≤30d 49 +32.2% +19.6% 51% 39% +16.0%
≤90d 67 +38.1% +25.0% 58% 45% +16.4%
all 67 +38.1% +25.0% 58% 45% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.0% 45% +16.4%
10% +13.0% 37% +5.2%
15% +2.1% 30% -4.9%
20% -7.9% 24% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses39 / 28
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions14
Markets (closed)67 / 81
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 76¢ 100¢ $206 $273 +$66 (+32%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 43¢ 20¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 81¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Yes 66¢ 41¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+74%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? No 89¢ 59¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 59¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 82¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 44¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" at The Villages on May 1? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$5 +94%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 +$4 +179%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$2 -24%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$1 -22%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $3 $0 -15%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winne Jun 17 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -27%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 17 $6 +$1 +15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winne Jun 17 $11 +$1 +9%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Win Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -9%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$3 -43%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$3 -28%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$6 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -45%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +90%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Jun 17 $13 −$7 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$9 +141%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$35 +421%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$57 +791%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$5 +38%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$20 +137%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $16 −$11 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$12 +392%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 01 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 4m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $38 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $6 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 88¢ $6 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 11¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 12¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $16 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 17¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $17 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $32 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $37 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $42 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $13 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 59¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $3 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.75 · official $298.75 (match) · 3500 history records