Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3f6…ad63 crypto 511 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$218 (+2%) realized +$218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%366W / 449L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,653
7 days−$1,701
14 days−$1,710
30 days−$1,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$87
weather 4% −$162
sports 1% −$108
other 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 372 -82.9% -84.6% 13% 13% -69.8%
≤30d 595 -49.9% -54.7% 38% 37% -29.5%
≤90d 815 -38.0% -43.9% 45% 41% -25.6%
all 815 -38.0% -43.9% 45% 41% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.9% 41% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -49.2% 24% -32.7%
15% -54.2% 7% -39.2%
20% -58.6% 4% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses366 / 449
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)815 / 511
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 815 Trades
no open positions (410 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 6¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records