Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3f4…a47f sports 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,442 (-3%) realized −$2,441 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate77%162W / 48L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$416est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days−$22
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$2,318
other 12% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +41.4% +28.0% 100% 100% +30.9%
≤30d 44 +15.6% +4.6% 82% 80% -12.6%
≤90d 207 +2.3% -7.4% 77% 59% -12.4%
all 210 +1.9% -7.8% 77% 59% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 59% -12.5%
10% -16.6% 29% -20.8%
15% -24.7% 14% -28.5%
20% -32.0% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$269 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$2,441
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses162 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$416
Open positions1
Markets (closed)210 / 216
History coverage91d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata 73¢ 72¢ $144 $143 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 29 $41 +$15 +36%
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 29 $54 +$34 +63%
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Jun 29 $33 +$8 +26%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $66 −$64 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $55 −$54 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $153 −$152 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $76 +$77 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $55 +$202 +365%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $140 −$139 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $112 +$29 +26%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $89 +$23 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $292 −$288 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $143 +$93 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$52 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $67 +$25 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $276 −$275 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $220 +$56 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $192 +$28 +14%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $161 +$32 +20%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $142 +$19 +13%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $128 +$13 +10%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $106 +$22 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $86 +$20 +23%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Ognjen Milic Jun 09 $76 +$10 +13%
Lyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 09 $65 +$11 +17%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $59 +$6 +11%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $50 +$9 +18%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $353 −$350 -99%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 04 $301 +$51 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $231 +$70 +30%
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket Jun 03 $204 +$27 +14%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 03 $154 +$50 +32%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Balaji/Demoliner vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 03 $136 +$18 +13%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $96 +$40 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $252 −$157 -62%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $226 +$27 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $180 +$46 +26%
Prostejov: Andrej Martin vs Vit Kopriva Jun 02 $154 +$26 +17%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $136 +$18 +13%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai Jun 01 $117 +$18 +16%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 01 $88 +$30 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $79 +$9 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $71 +$8 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $32 +$56 +174%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $103 −$101 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $112 −$9 -8%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5 May 24 $100 +$12 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $601 −$290 -48%
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: O/U 2.5 May 23 $155 −$154 -99%
Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) May 23 $99 +$56 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 73¢ $145 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 99¢ $56 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet SELL Oliver Tarvet 30¢ $89 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 18¢ $54 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 72¢ $41 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 100¢ $41 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 79¢ $33 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $66 7d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $55 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 34¢ $44 9d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 AND France vs. Iraq BUY $14 10d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador BUY 20¢ $113 10d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiy BUY $60 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $153 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $76 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 28¢ $257 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 21¢ $55 11d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $140 12d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $140 12d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $112 12d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $112 12d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $22 12d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $67 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $56 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $236 14d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $143 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $91 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $92 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $67 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.62 · official $148.52 · 469 history records