Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3f1…cae0
sports · 300 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$1,382 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$980 · open −$117
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,682
Realized+$980
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses134 / 160
Est. fees paid−$186
Open positions6
Markets (closed)294 / 300
History coverage589d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 6 History 294 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$320
14 days+$379
30 days+$918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $551 $529 −$22 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $489 $490 +$2 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $507 $447 −$60 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $217 $193 −$24 (-11%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner T1 32¢ 48¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+48%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Weibo Gaming Youth Team 55¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 1 Winner Ronaldo Team 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOS 50¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Team Vitality 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Anyones Legend 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner G2 NORD 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming Junior 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 8 at 5PM ET? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Bilibili Gaming 56¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Ozarox Esports 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner LOS 66¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 31¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 BNK FearX Youth 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Natus Vincere 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Game Handicap: TT (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) ThunderTalk Gaming 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$22 +56%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $10 +$38 +374%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $71 −$53 -74%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$17 +67%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$2 -9%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $32 +$13 +41%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$8 +75%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$30 +146%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$8 +40%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$55 +55%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$46 +1150%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $34 +$16 +49%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $44 +$56 +126%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $23 +$27 +119%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$21 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$10 +48%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$1 -7%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $28 +$4 +14%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 11 $69 −$69 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$31 +325%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $5 −$4 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$10 +49%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $28 +$22 +76%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $45 +$55 +121%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $26 +$24 +92%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $19 +$21 +108%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% +$910
other 21% −$114
politics 3% +$238
crypto 2% −$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $15 37m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $20 1h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 72¢ $20 9h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 57¢ $20 9h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 29¢ $10 12h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 51¢ $20 13h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 70¢ $30 13h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 20¢ $5 13h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & SELL Vivo Keyd Stars 79¢ $24 13h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 16¢ $5 13h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Team Heretics Academy 47¢ $17 13h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 86¢ $41 13h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 10¢ $2 14h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 27¢ $10 14h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 80¢ $38 14h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo SELL UCAM Esports Club 89¢ $44 14h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 51¢ $20 14h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 42¢ $20 14h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 94¢ $19 14h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 50¢ $4 14h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY UCAM Esports Club 63¢ $19 14h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY UCAM Esports Club 63¢ $13 14h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 93¢ $23 14h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 93¢ $28 14h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 63¢ $10 16h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 37¢ $20 16h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 37¢ $20 16h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 53¢ $20 16h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 53¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $78 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +7.2% -3.0% 46% 46% +7.2%
≤30d 257 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 43% +0.3%
≤90d 257 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 43% +0.3%
all 294 -3.8% -12.9% 46% 43% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 43% +0.1%
10% -21.3% 40% -9.5%
15% -28.9% 35% -18.3%
20% -35.9% 28% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,681.68 · official $1,681.68 (match) · 1195 history records