Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd3ee…663b sports 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,663 (-13%) realized −$2,663 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%81W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$332est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days−$138
14 days−$196
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,732
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 40% -14.3%
≤30d 76 -15.6% -23.7% 43% 39% -9.9%
≤90d 198 -18.9% -26.6% 41% 37% -22.0%
all 198 -18.9% -26.6% 41% 37% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 37% -22.0%
10% -33.7% 32% -29.4%
15% -40.1% 25% -36.3%
20% -45.9% 22% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$77 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,663
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses81 / 117
Est. fees paid−$332
Open positions0
Markets (closed)198 / 198
History coverage60d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 198 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Jun 27 $31 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi Jun 27 $135 −$7 -5%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $34 +$15 +45%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $144 −$9 -6%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $167 +$133 +79%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $62 −$10 -16%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $150 +$150 +100%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $150 +$171 +114%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $176 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $184 −$9 -5%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $218 −$218 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $144 −$144 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $189 −$189 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $284 +$54 +19%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $14 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $88 +$33 +38%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $231 +$69 +30%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $182 −$179 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 20 $33 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $238 +$157 +66%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $240 −$236 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Vitality (+3.5) Jun 19 $34 +$10 +30%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $304 +$145 +48%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $77 +$131 +170%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $68 −$67 -99%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $28 −$5 -18%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $156 +$144 +92%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $148 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $195 +$114 +59%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $106 −$105 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $134 −$132 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $107 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $149 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $191 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $270 +$93 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $75 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $171 +$101 +59%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $158 −$158 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $276 +$124 +45%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $188 +$174 +92%
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 10 $126 +$154 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame SELL Procyon Gaming 49¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Procyon Gaming 50¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Procyon Gaming 45¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Procyon Gaming 45¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Procyon Gaming 45¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Procyon Gaming 45¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Procyon Gaming 45¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Procyon Gaming 45¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 45¢ $108 12h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 46¢ $11 12h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 47¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 47¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 47¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 47¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 49¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 49¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 49¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 49¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi SELL SHISHKA 49¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi BUY SHISHKA 47¢ $59 13h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi BUY SHISHKA 47¢ $17 13h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi BUY SHISHKA 47¢ $34 13h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi BUY SHISHKA 47¢ $8 13h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi BUY SHISHKA 47¢ $17 13h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 45¢ $4 33h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 45¢ $2 33h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 45¢ $38 33h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 45¢ $5 33h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 31¢ $3 33h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 31¢ $30 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 642 history records