Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3ee…45f0
crypto · 1451 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,029 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$604 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$604
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1065 / 381
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1446 / 1451
History coverage132d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 25 History 1446 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+789%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 30¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+693%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+136%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+114%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+207%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 14 $4 −$2 -58%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -89%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $6 +$3 +51%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +29%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +29%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 49% −$458
sports 38% −$61
weather 8% −$73
other 5% −$1
world 0% −$12
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi SELL Lan Mi 33¢ $2 2h
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi BUY Lan Mi 77¢ $4 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 80¢ $4 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 5h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) SELL Australia 100¢ $6 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $1 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 6h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Australia 89¢ $5 6h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 7h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $5 9h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 90¢ $4 9h
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 60¢ $5 9h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 11h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY 67¢ $5 11h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY 58¢ $3 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY 65¢ $6 19h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 71¢ $7 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +0.6% -9.0% 79% 38% -11.3%
≤30d 288 -6.3% -15.2% 76% 34% -12.9%
≤90d 668 -3.2% -12.5% 81% 30% -11.1%
all 1446 -5.9% -14.9% 74% 35% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 35% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 16% -22.8%
15% -30.5% 10% -30.2%
20% -37.3% 7% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $2.92 (match) · 3500 history records