trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 29 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 41% | 0% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 0% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 0% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 89¢ | $45 | $44 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe | Dec 13 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 26 | $14 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 U.S. Open? | Jun 13 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after | Jun 12 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 11 | $7 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 10 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 08 | $16 | −$2 | -11% |
| Will Oracle buy TikTok? | Jun 07 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -19% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -22% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jun 05 | $7 | −$1 | -19% |
| Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th | Jun 04 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 03 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jun 02 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | Jun 02 | $28 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? | May 30 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on May | May 27 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? | May 27 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the | May 27 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? | May 26 | $28 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? | May 26 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? | May 25 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | May 24 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana reach $300 in May? | May 24 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 | May 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |