Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3ed…159e weather 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$197 (-5%) realized −$201 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate64%230W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$223
sports 11% +$8
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤30d 299 -1.4% -10.8% 61% 24% -16.5%
≤90d 358 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 23% -14.9%
all 360 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 24% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 24% -14.9%
10% -20.1% 18% -23.0%
15% -27.8% 16% -30.5%
20% -34.9% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses230 / 130
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)360 / 370
History coverage107d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 99¢ $47 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 23? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? No 88¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 23? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? No 97¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 23? No 89¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $18 +$2 +9%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $220 −$194 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $163 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $69 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $112 +$12 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $45 +$23 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $69 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $47 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $9 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? BUY No 89¢ $15 17d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 17d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 17d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $16 17d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $16 17d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $15 17d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 97¢ $15 17d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $13 17d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? BUY No 95¢ $12 18d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 18d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? BUY Yes 93¢ $13 18d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? SELL No 5¢ $12 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.51 · official $158.51 (match) · 773 history records