Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3ec…1cbb
other · 4 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$2 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 2 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.5% -54.3% 50% 0% -40.9%
≤30d 2 -49.5% -54.3% 50% 0% -40.9%
≤90d 2 -49.5% -54.3% 50% 0% -40.9%
all 2 -49.5% -54.3% 50% 0% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.3% 0% -40.9%
10% -58.7% 0% -46.5%
15% -62.7% 0% -51.7%
20% -66.3% 0% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 4 history records