Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3ec…6603
world · 57 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$37,494 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27,759 · open +$9,697
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Net worth$63,032
Realized+$27,759
Unrealized+$9,697
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)41 / 57
History coverage96d
Avg bet$3,440
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 16 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$828
7 days−$608
14 days+$4,988
30 days+$12,466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 63¢ 84¢ $20,822 $27,555 +$6,734 (+32%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 50¢ 60¢ $17,460 $21,000 +$3,540 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $5,619 $5,800 +$181 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $3,382 $3,232 −$150 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 62¢ $3,269 $2,768 −$502 (-15%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $675 $730 +$55 (+8%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $473 $456 −$16 (-3%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $371 $299 −$72 (-19%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $403 $291 −$112 (-28%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $218 $262 +$43 (+20%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? Yes 58¢ 66¢ $200 $226 +$26 (+13%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 61¢ 54¢ $200 $177 −$23 (-11%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 52¢ 72¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $80 $48 −$32 (-41%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? Yes 12¢ $24 $11 −$13 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $19,689 +$947 +5%
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 12 $57 −$50 -88%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7,605 −$1,724 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,780 +$220 +12%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $2,513 +$592 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9,548 +$4,452 +47%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,447 +$552 +38%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 28 $700 +$201 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $11,488 +$6,879 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4,302 +$398 +9%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $197 +$63 +32%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $1,977 +$1,126 +57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $20,536 +$3,838 +19%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? May 06 $70 +$121 +173%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 2 May 04 $900 −$900 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $4,004 +$396 +10%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-Ap Apr 24 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $27,948 +$9,045 +32%
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12 Apr 12 $1,340 −$657 -49%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 12 $1,721 −$969 -56%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 09 $1,500 +$212 +14%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 09 $2,969 +$285 +10%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 09 $4,261 +$1,233 +29%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-Ap Apr 09 $5,175 +$1,307 +25%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5 Apr 05 $21 −$5 -26%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5 Apr 05 $165 −$148 -90%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $3,262 +$361 +11%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Mar 31 $90 −$90 -100%
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Mar 31 $217 −$217 -100%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Mar 31 $50 −$36 -73%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? Mar 31 $21 +$90 +429%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29 Mar 31 $391 +$40 +10%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23 Mar 31 $2,766 +$852 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 26 $800 +$76 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 22 $480 −$140 -29%
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 17 $254 −$199 -78%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 17 $99 +$822 +832%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $400 −$42 -10%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 12 $50 +$14 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 91% +$38,878
other 5% −$1,151
politics 2% −$102
finance 1% −$146
tech 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $1,158 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $2,376 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $12 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $58 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $1,143 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $400 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $20 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $557 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $80 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $160 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $2,774 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $1,874 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $756 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $849 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $2,398 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $10,218 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $759 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10,418 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $203 8h
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL No $7 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2,019 20h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 51¢ $688 22h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1,717 22h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $484 22h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,014 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $350 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2,919 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10,235 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $3,600 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1,780 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 25% -11.4%
≤30d 10 +11.3% +0.7% 80% 60% +9.6%
≤90d 39 +21.4% +9.8% 62% 46% +8.2%
all 41 +20.8% +9.3% 61% 46% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.3% 46% +8.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.2% 37% -2.2%
15% -10.7% 17% -11.6%
20% -19.5% 12% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,031.85 · official $63,031.85 (match) · 476 history records