Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D3 0xd3e8…9cf2 sports 438 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%197W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$279
7 days−$56
14 days−$2
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$195
other 14% −$194
crypto 6% +$71
world 3% −$101
weather 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +5.2% -4.8% 50% 47% -12.2%
≤30d 80 +12.9% +2.1% 55% 54% -6.0%
≤90d 246 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 45% -8.5%
all 437 -8.8% -17.5% 45% 43% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 43% -10.2%
10% -25.4% 42% -18.8%
15% -32.6% 40% -26.6%
20% -39.2% 35% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses197 / 240
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)437 / 438
History coverage148d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 437 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $41 −$15 -37%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $94 +$69 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$34 +55%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $148 −$87 -59%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $81 +$27 +34%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$12 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$15 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina Jun 17 $25 +$46 +182%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$23 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$27 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$9 +59%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$65 +64%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$119 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$1 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $95 +$39 +41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$82 -81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $173 +$42 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $118 +$45 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $15 +$15 +97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$6 -31%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $15 −$12 -79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $30 +$12 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $127 −$37 -29%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $46 +$23 +50%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $30 +$24 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Wales vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Norway vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 +$10 +101%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $20 +$13 +62%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $26 47m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $41 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $94 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $94 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 20¢ $60 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $148 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 22h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 22h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $107 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $81 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $61 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $27 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $15 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $81 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $15 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $81 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $108 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $81 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina BUY 35¢ $25 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $15 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 990 history records