Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D3 0xd3e3…e50f sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$100 (+3%) realized +$101 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,048now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$21
politics 28% −$8
sports 13% +$127
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -3.8% -12.9% 44% 26% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 26% -6.4%
10% -21.3% 26% -15.3%
15% -28.9% 26% -23.5%
20% -35.9% 26% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$1,048
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage626d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $622 $622 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $427 $427 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Flames vs. Blues Nov 12 $17 +$13 +75%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Capitals vs. Hurricanes Nov 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Pacers vs. Jazz Nov 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Nov 11 $11 +$9 +79%
Trail Blazers vs. Magic Nov 11 $12 +$10 +82%
Raptors vs. Hawks Nov 10 $30 +$37 +122%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Nov 06 $15 +$15 +96%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Oct 06 $8 +$8 +96%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $6 +$8 +127%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $115 +$97 +84%
Canadiens vs. Blackhawks Jan 04 $104 +$117 +113%
Utah vs. Flames Jan 03 $103 −$103 -100%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will there be 170,000,000-175,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $19 −$19 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $427 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $622 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 12h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,063 12h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,064 19h
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 54¢ $10 218d
Flames vs. Blues BUY Blues 57¢ $17 218d
Capitals vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $13 218d
Pacers vs. Jazz BUY Pacers 58¢ $14 218d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 54¢ $8 218d
Pacers vs. Jazz BUY Pacers 57¢ $13 218d
Pacers vs. Jazz BUY Pacers 57¢ $12 218d
Bucks vs. Mavericks BUY Bucks 56¢ $11 219d
Trail Blazers vs. Magic BUY Magic 55¢ $12 219d
Raptors vs. Hawks BUY Raptors 45¢ $30 222d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 254d
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY DET 51¢ $8 268d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Rays 51¢ $12 274d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $6 276d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 359d
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 399d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 407d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? BUY Yes $1 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 407d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,048.47 · official $1,048.47 (match) · 71 history records