Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3e0…5d85 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$333 (-12%) realized −$330 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%44W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$3
crypto 32% +$1
sports 12% −$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 41 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 43 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 46 -2.0% -11.3% 96% 0% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -20.2%
10% -19.8% 0% -27.8%
15% -27.6% 0% -34.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$331 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$330
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses44 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage137d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 26? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 14 $331 −$331 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Mar 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US strike Iraq next? Feb 06 $1,593 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 26h
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.85 · official $41.85 (match) · 94 history records