Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3dd…1ad5 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-7%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$3
other 15% +$1
crypto 11% −$35
politics 9% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.4%
all 28 -3.3% -12.5% 25% 0% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -15.6%
10% -20.8% 0% -23.6%
15% -28.5% 0% -31.0%
20% -35.5% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage305d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 +$2 +6%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $16 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4500 on August 22? Aug 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $44 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $42 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $41 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $40 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 5d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $43 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $43 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $16 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $18 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $21 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $40 29d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $8 185d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $8 287d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $8 287d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $8 293d
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? SELL No 97¢ $8 294d
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? BUY No 97¢ $8 294d
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 88¢ $8 294d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records