Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3db…7bb1
other · 134 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$63 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses44 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage133d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 1 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-01? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-01? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
AC Milan vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-22? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Nottingham Forest FC 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-07? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Arsenal FC 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-02? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-07? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will US Lecce win on 2026-02-21? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Both Teams to Score May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $11 +$2 +15%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $1 +$3 +266%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $2 +$5 +241%
Will AS Roma vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $1 +$5 +456%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $3 +$4 +142%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 +$3 +161%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 +$5 +270%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $3 +$3 +104%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $3 +$3 +85%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $1 +$1 +52%
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% −$53
sports 16% −$5
crypto 12% −$8
world 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 13h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 35h
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 35d
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 37d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 37d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 38d
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 39d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 39d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 39d
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 8¢ $2 88d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 88d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5) BUY RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 26¢ $1 96d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 96d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 97d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 97d
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 98d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 98d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 98d
Will Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 98d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 99d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 99d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 99d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-06? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 100d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-03? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.3% -35.2% 25% 25% -44.0%
≤30d 4 -28.3% -35.2% 25% 25% -44.0%
≤90d 11 -58.4% -62.3% 18% 18% -62.0%
all 133 -13.8% -22.0% 33% 32% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 32% -24.6%
10% -29.5% 31% -31.8%
15% -36.3% 28% -38.4%
20% -42.5% 26% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $1.44 (match) · 235 history records