Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3d8…cb2a crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-22%) realized −$97 · open −$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$189
crypto 33% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -28.9% -35.7% 0% 0% -35.7%
≤30d 36 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 42% -30.2%
≤90d 36 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 42% -30.2%
all 36 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 42% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 42% -30.2%
10% -19.9% 42% -36.9%
15% -27.7% 33% -43.0%
20% -34.8% 28% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage24d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $445 $303 −$142 (-32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $156 −$45 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$7 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$17 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$10 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$9 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $14 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$8 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $13 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $13 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $9 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $9 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 22d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.71 · official $399.71 (match) · 112 history records