Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3d5…4a92
crypto · 16 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$10 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 38% -14.4%
≤30d 16 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 38% -14.4%
≤90d 16 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 38% -14.4%
all 16 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 38% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 38% -14.4%
10% -26.4% 38% -22.6%
15% -33.5% 38% -30.1%
20% -40.0% 38% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.92 · official $19.92 (match) · 33 history records