Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd3d4…302a
other · 118 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$1,149 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,149 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage118d
Avg bet$776
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 0 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days+$1,631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,726 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,300 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,004 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 06 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,337 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 04 $704 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $419 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,291 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,531 −$3 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 21 $1,024 +$1,671 +163%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $818 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $817 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $2,061 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,188 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,894 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $1,879 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,424 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 13 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,258 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $386 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2,158 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $383 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $363 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $1,703 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $1,181 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $413 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $304 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $729 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 39% −$44
other 37% −$336
sports 13% +$1,538
culture 6% −$5
economics 4% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,353 1m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,354 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,473 2h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,475 4h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,468 17h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,470 21h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,533 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,535 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $1,536 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1,538 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,376 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,378 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,366 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,368 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,319 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,322 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $759 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $760 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $885 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $886 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $911 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $912 13d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $708 15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $709 15d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $418 15d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $419 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $906 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $1,028 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 16d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $707 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 +7.6% -2.6% 10% 5% -4.9%
≤90d 88 -12.2% -20.5% 11% 8% -8.2%
all 118 -7.0% -15.8% 15% 10% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 10% -8.4%
10% -23.9% 10% -17.2%
15% -31.2% 7% -25.2%
20% -38.0% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records