Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd3d3…bb8e other 932 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57,333 (-4%) realized −$57,282 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%409W / 521L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,480per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$3,183est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$4,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32,375
7 days−$46,956
14 days−$39,764
30 days−$49,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$19,632
other 39% −$39,075
world 2% +$5,253
crypto 0% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -28.2% -35.0% 28% 26% -43.9%
≤30d 120 -14.7% -22.8% 38% 36% -27.6%
≤90d 482 -9.9% -18.5% 42% 40% -18.5%
all 930 -3.9% -13.1% 44% 42% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 42% -12.6%
10% -21.4% 39% -20.9%
15% ← realistic here -29.0% 32% -28.6%
20% -35.9% 26% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,143) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$782 vs −$716 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$4,420
Realized−$57,282
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses409 / 521
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$3,183
Open positions2
Markets (closed)930 / 932
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$1,480
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 930 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3,006 $2,974 −$33 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1,464 $1,446 −$18 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $22,059 −$12,452 -56%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $9,209 −$553 -6%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $17,222 −$9,867 -57%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 28 $3,336 −$3,281 -98%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 28 $817 −$800 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,966 −$1,950 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5,655 −$3,689 -65%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4,546 −$2,431 -54%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,330 +$2,647 +199%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,066 −$203 -7%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1,316 −$1,300 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4,991 −$459 -9%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $1,011 +$513 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,518 +$972 +64%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $602 −$591 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,800 −$180 -10%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $710 +$610 +86%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $4,560 −$4,500 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $275 −$269 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,399 −$106 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,028 +$18 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $94 −$2 -2%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $510 −$311 -61%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $512 −$147 -29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,044 −$2,000 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,439 −$304 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,596 −$183 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $512 −$500 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 25 $445 +$167 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,484 −$2,461 -71%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,782 −$3,732 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,267 −$1,251 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $505 +$275 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,040 −$1,998 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $803 −$37 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,959 +$1,094 +56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,710 +$336 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,589 −$780 -30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,798 +$3,474 +124%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $195 +$56 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 +$90 +88%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $506 −$28 -6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,021 −$1,012 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,476 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 45¢ $1,490 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $4,629 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $4,049 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $8,656 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $9,209 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $9,246 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $5,989 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 45¢ $5,988 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $7,019 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 99¢ $7 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $6,324 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 19¢ $2,365 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,012 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 28¢ $4,990 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $5 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $4,994 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 23h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $185 27h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $254 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5,063 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $992 27h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $356 27h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $511 27h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10,126 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,916 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,419.89 · official $4,419.89 (match) · 3500 history records