Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3d2…55f7 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-3%) realized −$7 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$114
sports 11% +$103
world 5% −$32
crypto 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.3% -19.7% 29% 26% -10.5%
≤30d 31 -11.3% -19.7% 29% 26% -10.5%
≤90d 31 -11.3% -19.7% 29% 26% -10.5%
all 31 -11.3% -19.7% 29% 26% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 26% -10.5%
10% -27.4% 26% -19.1%
15% -34.4% 23% -26.9%
20% -40.8% 16% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$24 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions25
Markets (closed)31 / 56
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Curaçao? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$34 +113%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 +$306 +596%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$8 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$16 +54%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$100 +335%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +354%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $28 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 5h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 5h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.61 · official $691.63 (match) · 81 history records