Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd3d2…fe85 sports 284 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,716 (+1%) realized +$4,518 · open −$802
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%128W / 152L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,605per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$7,052est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$2,847
crypto 4% −$3,310
other 2% −$2,618
finance 1% +$1,236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +16.9% +5.8% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤30d 95 +13.9% +3.1% 48% 48% -12.3%
≤90d 280 +9.5% -0.9% 46% 46% -9.2%
all 280 +9.5% -0.9% 46% 46% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 46% -9.2%
10% -10.4% 45% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -19.0% 44% -25.8%
20% -27.0% 39% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$2,108) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,611 vs −$1,364 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$3,099
Realized+$4,518
Unrealized−$802
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses128 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$7,052
Open positions4
Markets (closed)280 / 284
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,605
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2,950 $2,925 −$25 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? No 10¢ $640 $146 −$495 (-77%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $13 $19 +$7 (+52%)
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 12¢ $298 $9 −$289 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $429 +$1,281 +299%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3,234 +$1,223 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,612 −$1,590 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 −$132 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $944 −$933 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $641 +$453 +71%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $335 +$325 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $860 −$840 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $310 +$346 +112%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,587 −$2,550 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $88 −$82 -94%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,578 +$1,091 +42%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5,700 +$2,368 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3,948 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $3,552 +$2,600 +73%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $304 +$1,308 +431%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2,279 +$1,232 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,438 −$1,006 -41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,510 −$1,510 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,195 −$1,180 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,844 +$600 +33%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,790 −$1,776 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,518 +$982 +65%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $147 +$460 +312%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $497 +$1,122 +226%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $920 +$620 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $918 −$289 -32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $431 −$426 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3,128 −$3,110 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,524 +$1,198 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,412 +$577 +41%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $327 +$312 +96%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3,036 −$975 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $414 +$108 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $627 +$1,623 +259%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $1,755 −$1,728 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $1,367 +$1,994 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $237 +$645 +272%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $2,637 −$1,190 -45%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 02 $3,416 −$3,369 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $3,319 +$4,635 +140%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $777 −$731 -94%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $2,387 +$2,467 +103%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $2,575 −$2,536 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $4,000 −$3,967 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $2,108 +$2,940 +139%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? May 31 $1,687 −$1,600 -95%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 May 31 $179 +$194 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 73¢ $945 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,986 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 51¢ $219 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 32¢ $546 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 12¢ $429 2h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $208 5h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $93 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $267 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $2,966 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1,612 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY No 10¢ $673 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY No $8 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $135 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 48¢ $134 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 48¢ $4 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 48¢ $57 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 48¢ $4 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 48¢ $32 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 48¢ $371 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 45¢ $30 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 45¢ $312 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 58¢ $641 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $335 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $860 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $392 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $265 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $2,587 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes $88 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,098.73 · official $3,111.98 (match) · 2024 history records