Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3d0…3df9 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,377 (+16%) realized +$7,268 · open +$1,109
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$1,012per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$386est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$5,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$257
14 days+$3,709
30 days+$3,565
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$4,408
politics 24% +$2,011
sports 22% +$1,732
world 1% +$418
finance 1% −$384
crypto 1% +$125
tech 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.0% -28.5% 38% 38% -41.9%
≤30d 12 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 33% +76.2%
≤90d 19 -6.8% -15.6% 42% 42% +40.0%
all 47 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 47% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 47% +5.9%
10% -20.2% 38% -4.3%
15% -27.9% 36% -13.5%
20% -34.9% 26% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$940 vs −$599 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$5,460
Realized+$7,268
Unrealized+$1,109
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$386
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage594d
Avg bet$1,012
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OKX IPO in 2026? No 67¢ 89¢ $1,551 $2,069 +$518 (+33%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 57¢ 74¢ $1,000 $1,295 +$295 (+30%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 76¢ $1,000 $1,216 +$216 (+22%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $500 $445 −$55 (-11%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 59¢ 86¢ $300 $434 +$134 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $71 −$70 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $76 +$124 +163%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7,495 +$4,369 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $507 −$400 -79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $147 −$144 -98%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 29 $400 +$323 +81%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 29 $300 +$195 +65%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 25 $200 +$589 +294%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Apr 10 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 06 $15 −$14 -96%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $1,148 +$278 +24%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $400 +$418 +105%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Mar 09 $2,156 +$3,139 +146%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Mar 02 $300 +$106 +36%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $700 −$588 -84%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 02 $2,705 −$2,705 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Jan 21 $499 −$247 -50%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jan 20 $696 −$85 -12%
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 13 $300 +$142 +47%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? Jan 07 $400 −$384 -96%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $2,765 +$257 +9%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $200 +$277 +138%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 29 $3,185 −$113 -4%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 24 $800 +$142 +18%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Dec 22 $200 +$44 +22%
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 10 $150 +$181 +121%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 07 $6,600 +$1,210 +18%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 23 $5,193 +$9,510 +183%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers May 01 $150 +$33 +22%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 01 $40 +$15 +37%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Lakers vs. Celtics Mar 09 $40 −$31 -78%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Mar 09 $121 +$147 +122%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $7,498 −$7,498 -100%
Spurs vs. Nets Mar 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $71 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $9 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $67 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $307 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 6d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down $3 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $900 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 50¢ $400 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 50¢ $175 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $107 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $41 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 26¢ $106 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 70¢ $5,510 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 70¢ $15 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,053 19d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 27¢ $5,078 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $307 27d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 31d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 31¢ $505 39d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,024 49d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 49d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 55d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 59¢ $309 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,459.56 · official $5,459.56 (match) · 193 history records