Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3cf…ba19 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$214 (+4%) realized +$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%30W / 15L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 47% -5.4%
≤30d 45 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 47% -5.4%
≤90d 45 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 47% -5.4%
all 45 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 47% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 47% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 27% -14.4%
15% -22.2% 22% -22.7%
20% -29.9% 11% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$35 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses30 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage4d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $284 +$63 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$37 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $207 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$27 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $337 −$39 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $205 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$39 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$71 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$20 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$53 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$63 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$51 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $203 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $208 +$64 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$35 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $111 −$22 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $163 −$26 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $111 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $126 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $65 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records