Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D3 0xd3ce…eb48 crypto 875 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,418 (+2%) realized +$5,418 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate74%650W / 225L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$61
14 days−$125
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,435
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.6% -27.3% 67% 0% -32.8%
≤30d 83 +0.1% -9.4% 70% 30% -10.7%
≤90d 711 -2.2% -11.5% 74% 28% -11.6%
all 875 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 33% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 33% -8.3%
10% -17.9% 24% -17.0%
15% -25.8% 18% -25.1%
20% -33.1% 13% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$118 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$5,418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses650 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)875 / 875
History coverage103d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 875 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$62 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $96 −$62 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $103 −$74 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 05 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $103 +$62 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $101 −$86 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 03 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $101 −$34 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 03 $25 −$19 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $104 +$111 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 03 $203 −$34 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 02 $101 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $40 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $37 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $30 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $96 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $29 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $107 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $134 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $165 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.35 · official $35.35 (match) · 2197 history records