Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd3c7…a706 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$75 (+6%) realized +$125 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$48
sports 34% +$10
world 4% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 48% -4.3%
≤30d 21 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 48% -4.3%
≤90d 21 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 48% -4.3%
all 21 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 48% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 48% -4.3%
10% -19.6% 43% -13.4%
15% -27.4% 43% -21.8%
20% -34.5% 33% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$40 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage7d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 12¢ $65 $15 −$50 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$40 +50%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $35 −$7 -19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$40 +86%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$58 +96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$17 -47%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$29 +115%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $86 +$112 +130%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$39 +59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 +$5 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$72 +142%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $35 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $30 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 49¢ $29 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $35 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 46¢ $36 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $85 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $46 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $35 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $36 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $110 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 85¢ $100 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $36 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $39 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $34 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.92 · official $59.92 (match) · 41 history records