Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd3c7…7070 other 580 markets active 2h ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+0%) realized +$154 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%339W / 230L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$311
14 days+$369
30 days+$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$171
sports 24% +$345
crypto 4% −$186
politics 3% −$133
tech 2% −$11
weather 2% +$80
world 1% −$2
finance 0% +$4
economics 0% −$31
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +34.8% +21.9% 80% 80% +44.2%
≤30d 60 +13.8% +3.0% 52% 50% +1.1%
≤90d 162 +10.4% -0.1% 65% 34% -5.2%
all 569 +2.7% -7.1% 60% 30% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 30% -9.1%
10% -16.0% 24% -17.8%
15% -24.1% 20% -25.7%
20% -31.5% 15% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses339 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)569 / 580
History coverage383d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $29 +$28 +97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $44 +$33 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06 Jun 27 $90 +$69 +77%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $62 +$40 +65%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $59 +$40 +67%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $50 +$39 +79%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026- Jun 24 $78 +$44 +56%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Jun 22 $36 +$28 +76%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $71 +$40 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South Afri Jun 20 $25 +$26 +104%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $36 +$16 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 −$2 -12%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Tea Jun 18 $24 +$44 +178%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06- Jun 17 $28 +$27 +96%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 +$34 +75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 −$11 -36%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$25 +982%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $989 +$11 +1%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $46 +$31 +68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $65 +$38 +59%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $14 +$28 +197%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Will 2+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 13 $20 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $39 +$14 +36%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 11 $18 +$28 +156%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 +$21 +56%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 +$21 +135%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $32 +$20 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $25 +$32 +128%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $27 +$28 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $72 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $50 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will United States win on 2026-0 BUY 47¢ $30 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY 13¢ $8 28h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes $4 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $44 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $8 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $91 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $21 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $16 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 50¢ $29 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06 BUY 56¢ $90 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $59 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 60¢ $62 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $50 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026- BUY 63¢ $78 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 8d
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $36 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $71 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $36 9d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $1 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 9d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Germany win o BUY 20¢ $12 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL 88¢ $53 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 60¢ $36 10d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 50¢ $18 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.87 · official $77.66 · 1843 history records