Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D3 0xd3c4…3648 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%37W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$4
crypto 16% +$1
politics 7% $0
tech 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 -0.0% -9.6% 73% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses37 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage536d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? Feb 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Sep 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $34 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 04 $26 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 11 $67 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference? Mar 09 $3,754 −$4 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4000 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Feb 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anderlecht win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Jan 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $10 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $18 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 25 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $83 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 30d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $45 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 123d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $56 123d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 149d
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $67 151d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 182d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $38 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $60 212d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 240d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 241d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $47 243d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 271d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 274d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $43 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $35 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $25 334d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $34 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 365d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 395d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 425d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 425d
Will Xi visit the US before May? BUY No 100¢ $11 425d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.22 · official $83.22 (match) · 110 history records