Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D3 0xd3c3…e4c9 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$192 · open +$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$2,261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$44
crypto 7% −$2
sports 7% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -55.6% -59.8% 20% 20% -73.4%
≤30d 5 -55.6% -59.8% 20% 20% -73.4%
≤90d 5 -55.6% -59.8% 20% 20% -73.4%
all 5 -55.6% -59.8% 20% 20% -73.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.8% 20% -73.4%
10% ← realistic here -63.7% 20% -76.0%
15% -67.2% 20% -78.3%
20% -70.4% 20% -80.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$95 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,261
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$163
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)5 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 90¢ $730 $905 +$175 (+24%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $310 $308 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $295 $292 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $134 $133 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 67¢ 66¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $224 −$218 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 −$32 -78%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $97 −$70 -73%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 67¢ $68 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $85 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $314 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $224 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $299 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $368 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $368 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $26 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $694 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $716 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,261.16 · official $2,251.16 (match) · 28 history records